Estruturação de concessão em mobilidade urbana por opções reais: um estudo de caso do VLT de João Pessoa

Abstract

The demand uncertainty can severely impact urban mobility concessions. It is estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic generated a loss of approximately R$9.5 billion and reduced passenger demand in Brazil. The economic-financial structuring of urban mobility projects, incorporating uncertainties and flexibilities, can contribute to mitigating risks. In this study, the Real Options Theory (TOR) was used to assess the flexibility of abandoning a light rail vehicle (LRV) concession project in a scenario of demand uncertainty. The model was designed and applied to the case of the LRV in the metropolitan region of João Pessoa, Paraíba. In addition to approaching a more robust financial model for evaluating LRVs, the present study contributes to analyze the impact on the granting authority's budget with the objective of assessing the financial condition to pay for subsidies.