A sustentabilidade fiscal dos estados brasileiros: análise recente e notas para o futuro

Abstract

After years of relative tranquility, the situation of Brazilian states has recently become critical. The significant worsening of fiscal results has led many of them to a situation of semi-bankruptcy, with interruption of public services and delay in the payment of salaries and pensions. In this context this article seeks to analyze the financial situation of Brazilian states. For this, a general view is presented since the renegotiation of debt with the Central Government in 1997, when we describe the main fiscal variables since then. We also discuss the institutional framework, listing some improvements that should be adopted. For the perspectives ahead, we run simulations for the future fiscal outcomes, which allowed us to conclude that current expenditures must be controlled and the pension reform must be implemented. Even so, the debt repayment needs in the coming years will bring difficulties for the states, showing that the reform agenda still has a long way to go.