Elaboração de cenários: um estudo de caso do BNDES

Abstract

Of all known forecasting tools, the technique of scenario building, despite the fact that it is not a recent tool, is increasingly gaining strength and establishing itself as a safe alternative, considering the instabilities and uncertainties of medium and long term forecasts. The building and analysis of scenarios offer support for the decision-making process, sharing the vision of the future and developing strategic mechanisms for the organization’s desired forecasts The internal and external variables are turned into a game of actions and reactions, establishing relations of cause and effect. The technique of scenarios seeks to facilitate understanding among the agents involved, minimizing insecurity and uncertainties that are inherent to the planning process by seeking to identify and recognize the uncontrollable and unpredictable elements of the manager’s actions. The research tool used in the case studied – the BNDES – was consultation with specialists (the Delphi method) through spreadsheets, with the primary objective of recording the interviewees’ opinions on the future performance of the previously-selected variables. The results were catalogued according to analytical units of the disciplines involved, namely, economics, sociology, politics and techniques. Through the research process determined, five scenarios were identified, or standards recognized: alpha: disruption; beta: settlement; gama: worsening; delta: continuity and epsilon: autonomy. During the planning process, both scenarios were complemented by the various units of the BNDES system, through an analysis of the future perspectives of the sectors covered by the plans of action. In all the areas of the bank, the scenario of recommencement was selected as the preferred one and the strategic plan was built based on the perspective a recommencement of the economic and social development.