Uma solução automatizada para avaliações de impacto em estudos de caso: o Modelo Automatizado em R para Verificação de Impacto (MARVIm): módulo de controle sintético

Abstract

The objective of the present work is to present the Modelo Automatizado em R para Verificação de Impacto (MARVIm) Synthetic Control Module, a methodology for evaluating the effects of public interventions in an automated way. To do this, it combines a series of scripts and R-functions that carry out evaluations based on synthetic control. This method of evaluation was originally developed with the objective of detecting the effects of a policy or an event on some indicator of interest of a unit exposed to the intervention. Therefore, the objective of this module of MARVIm is to serve as an automated model for impact assessments in interventions with a few treated units, whether they are fi rms or geographic units. The present work includes a case study with the objective of verifying possible impacts of the construction of wind power plants in the municipal economies from 2007 to 2014. The synthetic control method was applied for each case, adding 37 individual evaluations, which were then compiled and analyzed in an aggregate manner. The results obtained were heterogeneous, but with median positive effects, agreeing with the bibliography raised.